Feb 26 2009

Ugh. So tired of all the inane Mormon ads on the internet

This isn’t even the first of these I’ve seen.

Mary: Every “act of God” seems so destructive…
Sue: What about those people who jumped in 2 help?
Mary: Are U saying God told them 2?
Sue: Maybe…

Is the Church targeting morons? I understand marketing to some degree, so let me just say, this is a bad campaign. Family Guy frequently makes fun of things like this by having “stupid” people conversing and saying one to another things like, “Look at him. He’s sitting casually backwards in his chair like us. I can relate to this guy. Let’s listen!”

But seriously, why is this bad? While it might appeal to lower lifeforms, people with two cents of intelligence will think, “Wow, that’s just dumb,” and be turned off. Honestly, the only people who type like that are 15-year-old girls.

A better strategy would be to use proper spelling/grammar. Even a stupid 15-year-old girl can decipher legitimate English, while the rest of the populace will also be able to focus on the message of the ad instead of the retarded way in which it’s written.


Feb 25 2009

Reading list update 2

With my recent discovery of the free audiobook website, I have downloaded nearly 8GBs of new material in the past couple days, and I just spent the past couple hours organizing it all nicely into my iTunes. Phew. (That 8GB translates into roughly 12 days of material.)

Since my last post, I’ve gotten through the following books:

  • The entire Harry Potter series (J. K. Rowling)
  • The Hobbit (J.R.R. Tolkien)
  • Outliers (Malcolm Gladwell)
  • The Black Swan (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)
  • I Am Legend (Richard Matheson)
  • Dracula (Bram Stoker) *
  • Oil! (Upton Sinclair) *

* I’m part of the way through these, but will have them finished soon-ish.

I kept thinking/meaning to write an entire post about Harry Potter, but never had the energy to do it. I can sum it up pretty easily though: life-changing. Nearly on par with the amazing-ness of The Lord of the Rings. Seriously, the last three books are Truly Epic, and the series as a whole is just incredible. Read them.

Here is the updated, super-long list. Since a lot of these are on audiobook, I expect to get through them relatively quickly:

  • Oil! (Upton Sinclair)
  • Dracula (Bram Stoker)
  • Hamilton’s Curse (Thomas DiLorenzo)
  • For A New Liberty (Murray Rothbard)
  • Robinson Crusoe (Daniel Defoe)
  • Gulliver’s Travels (Jonathan Swift)
  • Heart of Darkness (Joseph Conrad)
  • The Hunger Games (Suzanne Collins)
  • A Letter Concerning Toleration (John Locke)
  • Two Treatises of Civil Government (John Locke)
  • Peter Pan (J. M. Barrie)
  • The Jungle Book (Rudyard Kipling)
  • The Man Who Would Be King (Rudyard Kipling)
  • Treasure Island (Robert Louis Stevenson)
  • Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland (Lewis Carroll)
  • Through the Looking-glass (Lewis Carroll)
  • A Christmas Carol (Charles Dickens)
  • A Tale of Two Cities (Charles Dickens)
  • Adventures of Huckleberry Finn (Mark Twain)
  • Adventures of Tom Sawyer (Mark Twain)
  • Frankenstein (Mary Shelley)
  • Pride and Prejudice (Jane Austen)
  • Sense and Sensibility (Jane Austen)
  • Emma (Jane Austen)
  • Wuthering Heights (Emily Bronte)
  • Jane Eyre (Charlotte Bronte)
  • Oliver Twist (Charles Dickens)
  • Great Expectations (Charles Dickens)
  • David Copperfield (Charles Dickens)
  • Moby Dick (Herman Melville)
  • The Case Against the Fed (Murray Rothbard)
  • Man, Economy and State (Murray Rothbard)
  • Human Action (Ludwig von Mises)
  • Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal (Ayn Rand)
  • Loopholes of the Rich (Diane Kennedy)
  • Real Estate Investing for Dummies (Tyson and Griswold)
  • Options Made Easy (Guy Cohen)
  • Catch-22 (Joseph Heller)
  • Homage to Catalonia (George Orwell)
  • A Foreign Policy of Freedom (Ron Paul)
  • Reaganism and the Death of Representative Democracy (Williams)
  • People’s History of the United States (Howard Zinn)
  • Guns, Germs, and Steel (Jared Diamond)
  • Saying Yes (Jacob Sullum)
  • What to Eat (Marion Nestle)
  • Memoirs of a Geisha (Arthur Golden)
  • The Fellowship of the Ring (1)(J. R. R. Tolkien)
  • The Two Towers (2)(J. R. R. Tolkien)
  • The Return of the King (3)(J. R. R. Tolkien)
  • The Lucifer Effect (Philip Zimbardo)
  • Last Child in the Woods (Richard Louv)
  • Havana Nocturne (T. J. English)
  • The Demolished Man (Alfred Bester)

Feb 19 2009

Three amazing discoveries

I stumbled onto three really cool websites today.

  1. iConcertCal — Looks at the music in your iTunes and tells you when artists in your library are performing a show near your town AND releasing new CDs. It’s a plugin for iTunes, so it just integrates right into the software seamlessly.
  2. LibriVox — Free audio books! Legally! Ok, it’s not with any new books, just with classics that are now in the public domain, ie. copyright has expired. The quality seems to be just as decent as many of the professional pulications I’ve listened to, too.
  3. Project Gutenberg — Free books in text format! Same concept as LibriVox.

Feb 19 2009

Shifting definitions

I’m working on our taxes right now. We’re expecting a nice refund, thanks in large part to school expenses. But in order to file electronically, I need to know Ashley’s “adjusted gross income” (AGI) for last year. Since she was claimed as a dependent last year, she doesn’t have an AGI. Wanting to make sure, I decided to call the IRS.

I’m sitting on hold as I write this, and every minute or so they take a break from the Tchaikovsky loop they’re playing (unfortunately, it’s only The Nutcracker) and announce, “Sorry for the wait. We are helping other customers.”

The first time I heard this announcement I gave a small chuckle. Customers? The IRS has customers? I wanted to make sure I had the correct definition of customer in my mind, so I looked it up. Google tells me:

customer, noun.  a person who buys goods or services

That’s what I thought.

The following question is both rhetorical (for those who agree with me) and serious (for those who may favor taxes/the IRS/legalized theft): What goods or services am I getting from the IRS?


Feb 13 2009

Outliers and The Black Swan

In the past couple weeks, I zoomed through two books: Malcolm Gladwell’s Outliers and Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s The Black Swan.

At the most fundamental level, the books share the same topic: outliers. Outliers are things that are statistically rare or unexpected. While Gladwell’s book focuses primarily on people and cultures (Bill Gates, The Beatles, Asians) and presents his ideas from sociological and psychological standpoints, Taleb’s discourse deals more heavily with events (stock market crashes, 9/11) from a philosophical stance. Both books are full of interesting ideas and information.

I thoroughly enjoyed them, and think anyone with any kind of interest in business or social science should check them out.

My book reviews are below:

Outliers. I recommend reading this one first: The overall style is just easier to digest. It’s full of fun little vignettes, the technical vocabulary is minimal, and it doesn’t require as much thinking. It’s a simpler introduction to the idea of outliers. It’s also about half the length of The Black Swan.

The first part of the book focuses on individuals: how the best hockey players are made, where computer wizards like Bill Gates came from, why The Beatles became the greatest rock band of all time, and several others.

The second part deals with culture and its effects on people — good and bad. A significant portion discusses why Asians are so good at math.

Two main ideas permeate the text: 1) to become an outlier, you must prepare by working very hard, and 2) (more importantly than #1) to become an outlier, you have to be at the right place at the right time; or in other words, you are a product of your surroundings.

Insights can be inferred on how to accomplish the above things. But nothing is ever really explicitly recommended. Outliers is not a self-help book.

As I stated above, I enjoyed this book. However, I felt that Gladwell’s two ideas/conclusions ultimately conflict with one another. If, as #2 suggests, you are a product of your surroundings, and becoming an outlier is based on the luck of the draw, then what purpose is there to work hard? The implication of #2 is that luck is more important than skill.

Besides, doing #1 (working hard) will be of no avail if #2 doesn’t come along. No matter how hard you try, you’ll never be an outlier without luck.

But at the same time… can you think of anyone who made it big without some lucky break? Even our current president, as much as I don’t like the guy, is a perfect example: by pure luck, he got to speak at the Democratic convention during the 2004 Election, which initially put him in a national spotlight. Of all the people to speak, he was chosen. Is that not serendipity? (I mean for him, not for the country.)

And if you read the book, you’ll see countless other examples. It’s hard not to put some stock in what Gladwell presents.

The Black Swan. Amazing. But much more difficult to get through than Outliers. I have an easier time recommending Outliers, simply due to the ease-of-reading aspect. I sometimes felt like Taleb was trying to impress me with his technical vocabulary and his abililty to speak several languages. Luckily, he would restate his foreign sentences in English. And since the technical vocabulary was mostly philosophy, business/finance, or economics-based, I didn’t have a hard time following along. But still. I worry that someone like my mother, who might not be familiar with what epistemology is, or what standard deviations have to do with the Gaussian curve, might get annoyed with the book.

A black swan is Taleb’s name for an outlier — specifically a very unexpected one. As I mentioned above, 9/11 and stockmarket crashes are black swans. He claims that we could get rid of black swans: at the very least, we could turn them into “gray” swans by mitigating the risk associated with unexpected negative events. In order to do this, however, one must first understand why black swans exist.

The bulk of the book then goes off on a philosophical treatise regarding uncertainty and randomness. The key point can be made by a small analogy.

If you line up 1,000 random people and add up their weights, even if you find the world’s heaviest man and add him to the line, his weight won’t increase the overall weight of the group by much.

On the other hand, if you look at the incomes of those 1,000 people, and then you add the world’s richest man to the end of the line, his wealth will dwarf the entire group. It would be like adding a several-million-pound person to the line in the first example.

Whenever you’re looking at physical things like weights or molecules, their distribution makes up what is known as the Bell Curve. However, with social phenomenons, the Bell Curve is not applicable. Despite this, it is applied to everything by statistcians, businessmen, governments, and other so-called “experts.” Taleb explains how you can get out of this “trap.”

The biggest reason I liked this book probably stems from Taleb’s attitude. He’s incredibly skeptical and full of himself, and I guess I can relate with that. Hahaha.

So, go pick them up. I have the audio books, so if you’d prefer that to reading, let me know and I can hook you up.


Feb 11 2009

Taxes are indeed voluntary

Senator Harry Reid (D-NV) says income taxes are voluntary.

His logic is thus: No one is forcing you to file an income tax return. You can choose not to file. Granted, you may be fined or go to jail (ie. “suffer the consequences”), but you had the choice.

Of course, I hear this poor line of reasoning so frequently from both Republicans and Democrats, I don’t know why it keeps surprising me.


Feb 9 2009

Ashley and video games

A game called Mother 3 was released for the Game Boy a week before I came home from Japan. I got it and tried to play it, but only got a few hours into it before I came home. Once I got home, I was so busy adjusting to normal life that I didn’t play it much. By the time I could get back into it (many months later), my Japanese reading ability had declined to the point that I couldn’t fully understand what was going on.

Recently, a group of people has put together an English translation of the game (it sadly never came to the US in any commercial way), which Bob sent to me a few days ago.

This evening, I tried to get Ashley to play it.

About halfway through the intro, where it shows the island, the village, etc., establishing the setting for you (and before it actually lets you play), she says, “I’m bored.”

“Just hang on. It’s introducing you to the setting.”

“Ok…”

The game starts with someone knocking at the door. You’re sleeping in a bed on the second floor. “Where’s the door?” asks Ashley.

“You gotta go downstairs first, here.” I say, pointing to the stairs.

She walks to the door. The mom in the game says, “You gonna change out of your pajamas?”

Ashley selects “No”

Mom says, “Then you can stay inside the rest of your life.”

Ashley tries to go out again; she gets asked the same question. Again she selects “No”.

At this point I tell her the mom is going to ask her the same question over and over until she says yes. So then Ashley makes her way back up the stairs.

I chime in, “No… I think you have to actually say ‘Yes’ to your mom before you can change clothes.”

Ashley puts down the controller.

“I’m done with this game.”


Feb 8 2009

We’re not in a police state!… we’re NOT in a police state!…

Unlike the Little Engine that Could, you won’t make it to the top of the hill on that chant.

The Cato Institute has put together an extensive list of illegal and botched police raids that have happened throughout the country.

Check it out.


Feb 6 2009

A pet peeve: reporting a mean as a range

“Las Vegas averages 5 to 6 inches of rain a year.”

“Average classroom sizes are 15 to 20 students per teacher.”

Et cetera.

A mean (or arithmetic mean, or average, whichever you want to call it) is a specific number. It is computed by adding the samples in your survey, and dividing it by the number of samples.

For example, if the annual rainfalls in Las Vegas were for the past five years were 5.4 (inches), 6.2, 3.7, 4.9, and 5.9, the mean would be found by adding those together: 5.4+6.2+3.7+4.9+5.9=26.1; and then dividing by the number of samples, which in our situation is 5 (one for each of the five years): 26.1 / 5 = 5.22. Thus, our average yearly rainfall is not “5 to 6 inches” but 5.22 inches.

I think the reason people often erroneously report means is to try to give some idea at the magnitude for which rainfalls vary from year to year: “5 to 6 inches” is a lot less spread out than “3 to 8 inches” — even though the actual mean is likely the same. In essence, the reporter is trying to relate both the mean AND the standard deviation* in one fell swoop.

Unfortunately, it is still technically incorrect to report a mean as a range of values.

* The standard deviation measures the “spread” of the samples — if you’re interested in an explanation of how the standard deviation is computed or its statistical implications, let me know. If enough people are curious, I might write something about it.