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I was asked by my boss to review and “look for gaps in the logic flow” of a report prepared by the Soldier and Family Services division here at the National Guard. The report was nearly 40 pages long, but the only real substance was found in the first page with sentences like, “Army National Guard’s confirmed suicide rate reached an all-time high of 17.9 per 100,000,” and, “The intent of this campaign plan is to take a strategic approach to mitigating suicides and high-risk behavior across the Army National Guard.” Beyond that, the paper rambled on with long words and even longer sentences. I’m proud of the critique I wrote, provided below…

Two specific problems, and two general problems. First, the specifics:

The Situation, page 1, item 1: Is 17.9 suicides per 100,000 really something we need to have a ~40 page paper about? Looking at national statistics suggests that it’s not. In 2006, the US suicide rate for males was 17.7 per 100k and for women was 4.5 per 100k. Considering more than 85% of our force is male, we should expect an overall suicide rate of about 15.9 suicides per 100,000, so 17.9 isn’t that far off from what we should expect. These are back-of-the-envelope calculations, but the point still stands that the alleged suicide epidemic in the NG isn’t nearly as dire as the paper seems to suggest. Furthermore, I believe if we controlled for geography, race, and age, the expected suicide rate for the Guard would be higher, thus weakening the seriousness of the problem even further.

End State, page 2, item c: “The suicide is reduced” seems to be our goal — so if our suicides drop from 17.9 to 17.89, will we consider that success?

Then the general:

Even if I were to buy into the notion that I should be overly worried about the suicide rate, I didn’t see anywhere in the paper any sort of scientific or mathematical analysis to indicate why any of the proposals to reduce the rate should work. The paper just implies that we should all assume that the programs work, and that they all work equally well, so we should just dump lots of time, money, and effort into them. But if, for example, substance abuse programs are twice as effective at combating suicide as financial assistance programs, more resources should be put into the more effective programs.

Also, resources spent on suicide prevention likely have diminishing returns to effectiveness, meaning that the first $100k spent on suicide prevention will be more effective at reducing suicide rates than the tenth $100k. This implies that there is a point at which additional resources spent on suicide prevention will have such a miniscule effect on suicide rates that it is wasteful to spend those resources. This concept forms part of the basis for cost-benefit analysis, and while it is very unemotional and perhaps “inhuman” to suggest doing a cost-benefit analysis on resources spent toward suicide prevention, that’s ultimately the most rational choice. Perhaps these types of analyses have been done, but I read no reference to them in this paper.

I really should update once in a while huh.

Maybe.

I’ve been collecting books for the past several months and only reading a couple of them, due to time constraints. Those time constraints will, to some extent, be lifted soon. So here are some potential reads for the summer. Chance are I’ll only be able to get through 3-5 of them… so, in no particular order:

• A Brief History of Liberty by Schmidtz and Brennan. Sort of recommended by Tyler Cowen. Seems like a casual reading kind of book, where I’ll already know a good deal of the material, but it will help to build context.
• A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper by John Allen Paulos. My friend Elliott Griffin recommended this one to me. Don’t know much about it, other than the title.
• A Brief History of Time by Stephen Hawking. I’ve wanted to read this for a long time. And possibly more by Hawking. Frankly, I’m not sure what the audience is for this book… so I may either “get it” or be completely confused.
• The Death and Life of the Great American School System by Diane Ravitch. The author was on EconTalk with Russ Roberts recently; I didn’t listen to the podcast, but the blog post made the book sound quite interesting.
• V for Vendetta by Moore and Lloyd. It’s my second favorite movie, so it might be a favorite book, right?
• The White Man’s Burden by William Easterly. Seems like required reading for anyone interested in development economics, which I am. I need to get on the ball.
• Why Not Socialism? by G.A. Cohen. It’s really short (80ish pages, and small pages. It’s almost like a big pamphlet). Supposedly espouses how wonderful socialism is. I want to read it so I can try to understand the other side better.
• The Return of Depression Economics by Paul Krugman. This is longer, though I suspect it’s a lot like the previous book on this list. *sigh*
• A Pilgrim’s Path by John J. Robinson. A book about becoming a Freemason. A buddy at work gave it to me.
• The Nurture Assumption by Judith Rich Harris. Recommended by Bryan Caplan. I think I’ll understand the content of Bryan’s upcoming book, Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids, if I read this book.
• Free-Range Kids by Lenore Skenazy. Same as last description.
• Intelligence and How to Get It: Why Schools and Cultures Count by Richard E. Nisbett. I stumbled onto this in a bookstore one day, and it looked interesting. It’s got 4 stars on Amazon, so I picked it up.
• The English Reader: What Every Literate Person Needs to Know by Michael and Diane Ravitch. Heard about this on NPR. I think if I read this, I won’t have to read any of the classics. It’s like a giant Sparknotes for them all. Or something.
• South Africa’s War Against Capitalism by Walter E. Williams. He mentioned it in class last semester. I think he actually does real economics in this book.
• Saying Yes: In Defense of Drug Use by Jacob Sullum. Hey now, I’m a fan of legalizing drugs — all of them. But Sullum is taking it a step further. This book is just bound to be ridiculous, maybe. (I think he might just be talking about marijuana, in which case it might not be so ridiculous. I honestly don’t know.)
• Roots by Alex Haley. Why haven’t I read this yet?
• Catch-22 by Joseph Heller. Maybe the other book higher up on this list covers this one, so I won’t actually have to read it?
• One Hundred Years of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia Marquez. Ditto. I dunno.
• Development as Freedom by Amartya Sen. Another development econ book. (I’m actually not THAT interested in development econ, truthfully.) I think this was one of the first books Sen wrote after he won the Nobel prize.
• Hamilton’s Curse by Thomas DiLorenzo. I liked The Real Lincoln. If anyone can build a case against Hamilton, it seems like DiLorenzo’s the guy.

Any other recommendations for me — either from this list or from elsewhere?

Hi all,

A handful of classmates and I have banded together to start a new blog. Its primary discussion will revolve around economic, political and social issues, but will undoubtedly also cover pop culture, religion, philosophy, and a myriad of other topics.

I don’t plan to get rid of my personal blog, and I’m not sure how I will divide up posts between it and this new one I’m involved in. So, just plan on checking them both! The worst thing that can happen is you might learn something.

So, why not head over to Unconstrained Optimism?

Yesterday I voted in the Virginia election. There were only five (or was it six?) positions to vote for. I want to tell you all a little about my experience voting.

First off, I only voted for three of the positions: governor, attorney general, and house of delegates. I guess that last one is like the state legislature or something? I really have no idea.

Well, leading up to the election, I was unsure as to whether I should vote for the D or the R guys. On the one hand, D is pretty close to B, which is the first letter of my first name. But on the other hand, R *is* R, the first letter of my last name. In the end, I chose to go for the R guys, and for reasons other than the first-letter-of-my-name thing.

Bob McDonnell’s competitor had put signs up all over Fairfax saying something to the effect that Bob wanted to get rid of schools. You might know I’m not a fan of public schools, so if Bob is against them, he’s my guy. I just don’t understand why his Creigh Deeds would have gone around paying for a positive advertising campaign for his election competitor.

I voted for Bob McDonnell, and he won by 6%. It’s a good thing I voted for him, because without my vote, he would have undoubtedly lost.

The race for attorney general had a similar story. The guy running against Cuccinelli (I don’t even remember his (or her) name) has been playing ads all over TV saying how Cuccinelli once said that he wouldn’t enforce laws he didn’t agree with. Wow! What a strong endorsement!

Seriously, these Democrats are horrible at the PR game. You guys are supposed to advertise negative qualities about your competitors (or at least talk up the good points of your own business). No wonder Republicans owned the elections last night.

Well anyway, I voted for Cuccinelli. This was a much closer race — Cuccinelli only won by 1%! My vote really counted here.

So in case you’re not keeping track, my vote has counted in two of two cases.

However, there is still the general assembly election. There was no R in this race, only a D. Having run as a third party candidate in the past, I can empathize with the lower-ranked parties. So I voted for the Green Party candidate, Anna Choi. I mean, I like the color green, so why not? And I can tell by her name that she’s Asian, and I like Asians.

Furthermore, her website claims she is a fiscal conservative… which in conjunction with being a Green means she probably just favors raising taxes really high to offset government spending. But that’s ok, because I learned recently from doing my macro homework that in a Keynesian world (which we live in), an equal increase in government spending and taxes results in a net positive effect on the economy. What’s not to love about this kind of fiscal conservatism?

Unfortunately, Anna lost her bid to serve us. It went to the D.

But I refuse to let one bad race prevent me from enjoying my democratic freedoms in this country and knowing that, at the very least, my vote counted in two of the three races.

Several weeks ago I ordered a book from Amazon for one of my classes. When I got it, and I realized it was missing pages 19-51. So I sent Amazon an email, and they sent me a new copy the next day (as in, I received a replacement *the day after I reported the problem*… Amazon FTW). Unfortunately, it had the same problem. So I asked around and found out other classmates had the same problem (ordering it from other bookstores, even).

I decided to contact the publisher, MIT Press:

I have ordered two separate copies of Lectures on Macroeconomics by Blanchard and Fischer (ISBN 0-262-02283-4) and both copies are missing pages 19-51. Other classmates are having the same problem. What can be done to fix this? It seems that multiple booksellers have the same faulty printings…

A couple days later, they replied with this:

Dear Brandon:  I have checked with the press, and they can’t seem to think of a particular book off hand.  Perhaps you can try Amazon.com.  I’m sending the link to hopefully help in the search.
thank you,
____

<http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=women+law+enforcement&x=0&y=0>

The punch line to this story is found by clicking on the link they sent me.

For those of you who read my blog but not Ashley’s, go check out her latest post to read about our adventures this past week. I thought about writing a travelog, but decided Ashley’s done a more-than-adequate job for the both of us.

And lo, he sprang before me as the flash of a turquoise tornado. As if to dare me to attempt murder, he sang a song. Calling, beckoning. The menace of his voice was unnerving, but I remained unwavering. This was not to be a moment of hesitation: nay, but a moment of decisive victory. It would be the time of his ignominy.

My course of perquisition, having lasted past years three, had landed me on his trail fewer times than that a man has fingers on his hand. Yet I endeavored, persevering in hope that my avocation would prove fruitful. And indeed it had, as the elusive Green Hornet was thus before me.

Perched upon a branch of such beauty as to cause bemusement to even the most thoughtful of creatures, he stared, peering as it were into my soul. But many long moons of study and rumination had prepared me for this chicanery, and I withstood his piercing eyes.

As we gazed across the space, it was I, who, seizing the proper opportunity, sprang forward in such a perfect grace as to immediately receive recognition from the gods. Yea, the fiercest, most noble lioness fighting for the defense of her den of cubs could not have compared to the power and agility with which I bared down upon the Green Hornet.

And it was with the Strength and Promise of the Heavens that I struck him down with all my might, banishing him from this world and the next, never to haunt the souls of men again.

Thus was the end of the elusive Green Hornet, and this is the tale.

(Click to enlarge the image of the elusive Green Hornet.)

(UPDATE: The following image is a better shot, taken of a live Chlorion aerarium. Thanks to Mike Treat and Natalie Delgado for help in identification. Turns out he’s actually a wasp, which I knew, but “green hornet” sounded cooler.)

Today in Las Vegas, a 5-year-old found a gun in his dad’s car’s glove compartment, pulled it out, and accidentally shot himself in the head. His dad was sitting in the car right next to him.

Oh and by the way, it’s the gun’s fault.

I didn’t even want to watch the “news coverage” on this one, but I’m almost sure that was the diagnosis.

In other news, I started to look up gun laws in Virginia. I found some gems of information.

For example, you are only permitted to buy one handgun per month (unless you’re a cop, or), unless given a Multiple Handgun Purchase Certificate, obtainable by filling out a Multiple Handgun Purchase Application. Naturally, you must justify needing to buy multiple hand guns, and there are no guidelines as to what constitutes justifiable.

Not that I’ll be buying multiple handguns anytime soon — we’re too poor. But it really makes me wonder what sort of illogical mind games people (ahem, politicians) must play with themselves for that to make any sense. What purpose does that serve?

Virginia has an “informal” agreement with the state of Utah to accept its CCWs (I have a Utah and Nevada CCW, so I’m ok, right?)… I wouldn’t count on being ok, though. Really, what is an informal agreement? What does that even mean? So, I’ll probably be getting a Virginia CCW as well. Wee!

On the plus side, I found out I can at least take my gun onto GMU campus… so long as I leave it in my car in the parking lot. It’s not that I’m worried about a crazy person shooting up a school in Virginia or anything, I just like to have my gun close to me at all times, if possible.